Metro Vancouver Real Estate Update
January 2026: Market Reflections
Happy New Year folks! It's January and while Metro Vancouver real estate may be sleepy (aren't we all this time of year?), that just makes it the perfect time to assess and do some forecasting. And while the 2025 stats haven't been overwhelmingly positive this year, I have acheived own my personal best and feel incredibly optimistic about 2026. Thanks to hard work (from myself and my marketing specialist/wife) and the the trust of my clients, I closed a personal best of 27 sales this year! I share this detail to explain why my attitude remains upbeat even when the stats might suggest otherwise.
I started working for myself (after more than a decade on teams) and joined Oakwyn in July of 2024, making 2025 our first calendar year of independence. This move gave me increased confidence and complete control over marketing and the services I offer. Our marketing has grown to better reflect the brand both on social media and our website, where we showcase our client's properties to an ever-growing market. Joining Oakwyn has expanded my network with more incredible agents with whom to share tips, cross-promote and when possible, even do deals together!
So as I enter 2026, and consider the state of Metro Vancouver real estate, I am optimistic and thinking strategically. How can we grow, what can we do better, where do we want to be 12 months from now? While everyone is busy projecting the Spring Market, I will be working with clients to optimize their sales approach, increasing our marketing reach and coaching buyers on where to make their best investments.
What 2025 Tells Us About 2026
2025 will go down in the history books — but not for the reasons sellers and agents were hoping for. According to the Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR), the region finished the year with the lowest annual sales total in over two decades. Only 23,800 homes changed hands in 2025, down roughly 10% from 2024 and nearly 25% below the 10-year average. That’s a meaningful slowdown, and it sets the stage for an interesting 2026.
What Happened in 2025: Metro Vancouver Market Key Takeaways
- Sales Slowed Sharply, But Listings Spiked: Even though buyers pulled back, sellers didn’t. In fact, Metro Vancouver had the highest listing count since the mid-1990s — with more than 65,000 properties offered on the MLS®. That’s up more than 8% from 2024 and nearly 30% above 2023. That dynamic — high inventory + lower sales — pushed supply well above seasonal norms, giving buyers plenty of choice and less pricing pressure.
- Prices Eased Modestly: The benchmark price across Metro Vancouver now sits at about $1.11 million, which is slightly below both last year’s level and the previous month’s price. This reflects a market adjusting to conditions rather than skyrocketing.
- Borrowing Costs Fell Too: One bright spot: borrowing costs dropped nearly a full percentage point in 2025, helping offset some affordability challenges. With both prices and rates lower than the prior year, 2026 begins with more positive conditions for buyers than we’ve seen in a while — if demand returns.
2026 Mortgage Rate Forecast: What Buyers Need to Know
- Mortgage rates are a huge part of the affordability equation in Vancouver, and 2026 could be a year of stability or mild movement — not wild swings.
- Most major Canadian banks and economists believe the Bank of Canada’s overnight policy rate will stay around 2.25% through much of 2026 — effectively keeping borrowing costs manageable for now. Some forecasts even see the rate held steady into early 2027.
- A few forecasts hint at a slight uptick later in the year (to the 2.5%–2.75% range) if inflation re-emerges or if economic growth surprises on the strong side, but that’s not the base case.
What That Means for Mortgage Rates
- Fixed-rate mortgages: Most predictions see 5-year fixed rates landing in the mid-to-high 3% range, roughly ~3.8%–4.5% through 2026 if market expectations hold.
- Variable-rate mortgages: These tend to track closer to the policy rate and could stay in the low-to-mid 3% range as long as the Bank holds steady.
What This Means For Buyers in 2026
- More choice and less competition than in past seller markets.
- Lower borrowing costs than peak years.
- Prices are stable or easing modestly.
- Don’t expect dramatic affordability windfalls — the 3–4% mortgage rate environment is good compared to recent years, but it’s not bargain-basement territory.
What This Means For Sellers in 2026
- This isn’t a sprint — it’s a tactical market.
- Pricing right and positioning your home will matter more than simply listing and waiting.
- Buyers have options and time to compare — so you’ll need a strategy that reflects that reality.
In Summary
Metro Vancouver’s 2025 numbers show a market in transition, not collapse. With historically low sales, record listings, and decent borrowing costs heading into 2026, the conditions are favourable for a rebound — but that rebound depends on buyer confidence returning. Watch interest rates closely and keep a steady eye on inventory levels. In a landscape where affordability matters as much as location, timing your move wisely could be the difference between a good purchase and a great one.Sources:
